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ATTACHMENT 17 EXHIBIT B Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico Report to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico Report to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Uri ten Brink1, David Twichell1, Patrick Lynett2, Eric Geist3, Jason Chaytor1, Homa Lee3, Brian Buczkowski1, and Claudia Flores1 1 U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole Science Center, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA 2 Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA 3 U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA September 2, 2009 NOTICE from USGS This publication was prepared by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, make any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed in this report, or represent that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. Any views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Although all data published on this report have been used by the USGS, no warranty, expressed or implied, is made by the USGS as to the accuracy of the data and related materials and (or) the functioning of the software. The act of distribution shall not constitute any such warranty, and no responsibility is assumed by the USGS in the use of these data, software, or related materials. This report should be cited as: Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Administrative Report. This report was compiled for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Cover: Shaded bathymetry of the Gulf of Mexico. Landslide deposits are marked in red. The three primary geologic provinces of the region are highlighted by the dashed lines. EB-East Breaks Landslide, MC-Mississippi Canyon, BC-Bryant Canyon, EMF-East Mississippi Fan, BF-Bryant Fan, MF-Mississippi Fan. Bathymetry derived from Armante and Eakins (2008) vii Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: DISTRIBUTION OF SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Setting ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Types of Submarine Mass Movements ........................................................................................................ 2 Distribution of Submarine Landslides ......................................................................................................... 3 Carbonate Province..................................................................................................................................... 3 Salt Province ............................................................................................................................................. 5 Canyon/Fan Province................................................................................................................................. 6 Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figures........................................................................................................................................................ 8 References ................................................................................................................................................ 11 CHAPTER 2: TIMING OF OCCURRENCE OF LARGE SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES ................ 15 Temporal Variations of Failure Conditions ............................................................................................... 15 Modeling .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Findings and Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 18 Table ........................................................................................................................................................ 21 Figures...................................................................................................................................................... 22 References ................................................................................................................................................ 24 CHAPTER 3: PRELIMINARY MAPPING AND ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL LANDSLIDE- GENERATED TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCES ....................................................................................... 27 Tsunami Observations in the Gulf of Mexico ........................................................................................... 27 Maximum Credible Submarine Landslides................................................................................................. 28 East Breaks Landslide ............................................................................................................................. 29 ...